Mesoscale Discussion 0011
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1147 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of north central/northeast Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101747Z - 101945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development across north central and
   northeast Texas appears increasing likely within the next few hours,
   accompanied by increasing potential for severe hail and tornadoes as
   early as 2-3 PM CST.

   DISCUSSION...In association with the strong gradient between the
   western Atlantic low-level ridge and troughing across the southern
   high Plains, southerly 850 mb flow continues to strengthen to 50+ kt
   along an axis across the Texas coastal plain through northeastern
   Texas and eastern Oklahoma.  This is aiding northward moisture
   return in a tongue largely east of the Interstate 35 corridor of
   Texas and Oklahoma.  This includes mid 60s surface dew points in a
   developing corridor from the Corsicana and Waco TX vicinity through
   Durant and Ardmore OK, which may continue to spread northwestward
   toward the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and northward near/west of
   McAlester OK, through mid to late afternoon.

   With at least weak boundary layer warming, mixed-layer CAPE to 1500
   J/kg is developing, coinciding with the enlarging low-level
   hodographs, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.  The
   combination of boundary layer warming and moistening, and weak
   cooling aloft with increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the
   approaching mid/upper trough, is contributing to a gradual weakening
   of mid-level inhibition.

   Isolated thunderstorm activity may already be initiating near/west
   of the Metroplex, and latest model output suggests that a more
   notable increase in storm development is possible near and south of
   the Red River by around 19Z.  Although early activity may be
   initially rooted in a strengthening low/mid tropospheric warm
   advection regime, a quick transition to boundary-layer based
   convection seems probable through 20-21Z.  As this occurs, the risk
   for supercells with the potential to produce tornadoes is expected
   to increase.  Otherwise, stronger storms will pose a risk for severe
   hail.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 01/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33929761 34139532 31849622 31499882 33929761