Mesoscale Discussion 0012
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1211 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas and southwestern
   Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101811Z - 102015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential for supercells capable of producing tornadoes,
   in addition to severe hail, may increase across southeastern Kansas
   into southwestern Missouri through 2-4 PM CST.  Trends are being
   monitored for the possibility of a new watch, or extending tornado
   watch number 2 northward, within the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Convection with embedded vigorous thunderstorms
   continues to develop north-northeastward with supporting forcing for
   large-scale ascent, toward the lower Missouri Valley.  Storms may
   still be largely rooted above the boundary layer, within broader
   lower/mid tropospheric warm advection.  However, weak to modest
   boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing, ahead of a weak frontal
   wave which is forecast to migrate across the Chanute KS area toward
   the Kansas/Missouri state border area (north of Joplin MO) through
   20-21Z.  With at least some further increase of surface dew points
   into the lower 60s possible, the environment may become increasingly
   conducive to supercells accompanied by the risk for tornadoes, in
   addition to severe hail.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 01/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38019560 38209382 37919300 36959344 36919418 37049595
               38019560