Mesoscale Discussion 0015
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0144 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Oklahoma and adjacent
   portions of Kansas...Missouri...Arkansas and Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...

   Valid 101944Z - 102115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.

   SUMMARY...Upscale growing and organizing convection will pose
   increasing potential for damaging wind gusts and a few embedded
   tornadoes through 4-6 PM CST.  Potential for more discrete
   supercells, which could pose a risk for a strong tornado or two, may
   become maximized near Paris TX, and surrounding areas of southeast
   Oklahoma/northeast Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development has become increasingly
   widespread, and generally oriented along the 50-55+ kt
   south-southwesterly 850 mb jet axis across eastern Texas and
   Oklahoma, which is forecast to continue nosing northward into/across
   southwestern Missouri through 23-00Z.  The extent to which strongest
   cells to this point have become rooted within the moistening and
   gradually destabilizing boundary layer remains unclear, but
   undoubtedly will increase as boundary layer instability peaks late
   this afternoon and evening.

   Given the strength of the flow and low-level shear, potential for
   damaging wind gusts and tornadoes should gradually increase in
   association with "bowing" segments and developing mesovortices
   embedded within the organizing convective line.  Based on the latest
   Rapid Refresh forecast soundings, low-level hodographs most
   conducive to tornadogenesis (including considerable clockwise
   curvature) in discrete supercells, may become focused around the
   Paris TX area, by 23-00Z.

   ..Kerr.. 01/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34769649 36599558 37289441 36269411 34079448 32909581
               33779695 34769649