Mesoscale Discussion 0017
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of north central and northeast Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...

   Valid 102059Z - 102300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.

   SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts, with some risk for
   tornadoes, is expected to increase with an evolving convective
   system overspreading the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex between 4 and 6
   PM CST.  Isolated supercell development may precede the line, and
   pose a risk for a strong tornado or two, particularly east-northeast
   of the Metroplex into areas near/west of Paris TX by around 6 PM.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development continues to grow upscale and
   gradually organize across north central Texas into southeastern
   Oklahoma.  This is roughly aligned with the western edge of the
   50-55+ kt southerly low-level jet axis.  

   20Z surface analysis indicates that 2 hourly surface pressure falls
   are currently maximized in excess of 4 mb, near and just southwest
   of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.  This appears beneath the
   southern fringe of stronger difluent and divergent flow aloft (near
   the inflection between downstream ridging and the approaching short
   wave trough). 

   Aided by continuing inflow of moist and unstable boundary layer air
   characterized by CAPE up to 1500 J/kg, in the presence of strong
   deep layer shear, further upscale growth and organization appears
   likely.  Based on the latest Rapid Refresh, among other model
   output, the primary convective line probably will surge eastward
   across the Metroplex during the 4-6 PM CST time frame.

   Heavy precipitation loading and downward momentum transfer may
   support primarily an increasing risk for potentially damaging
   surface gusts, as low-level hodographs tend to become more
   unidirectional with the approach of the convective line.  Largest
   clockwise-curved low-level hodographs are forecast to remain focused
   east of the line, where at least isolated discrete supercell
   development is possible and seems to offer the best potential for
   tornado development.  This may become maximized near/southwest of
   the Paris TX area by around 6 PM CST.

   ..Kerr.. 01/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   31859790 32769767 33379719 33859648 34029594 33799522
               32419617 31459657 31289728 31859790