Mesoscale Discussion 0018
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas...east into
southern Missouri...Arkansas...and northwestern Louisiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...3...
Valid 102255Z - 110100Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2, 3 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across valid portions of
Tornado watches 002 and 003, and is increasing to the east, into the
Arklatex region. A new watch or watches will be required.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a weak low/frontal
wave over the north-central Texas/far south-central Oklahoma area,
along a baroclinic zone extending from central Missouri
southwestward across the eastern half of Oklahoma, and then
south-southwestward across central Texas. Thunderstorms are
currently evolving linearly along the cold-frontal portion of the
boundary across Texas, with a well-developed supercell noted within
the band southwest of the DFW Metroplex, moving north-northeast at
45kt. Farther northeast, across the eastern Oklahoma/northwestern
Arkansas vicinity, a couple of bowing clusters of storms are moving
quickly northeastward in the vicinity of the warm-frontal portion of
the baroclinic zone, where damaging wind risk is evident.
Meanwhile, a warm/moist/unstable -- but slightly capped -- warm
sector is indicated ahead of the line, across east Texas and the
Arklatex region. Storms have been slow to organize across this area
ahead of the frontal band of cells, but -- aided by a very
favorably-sheared environment -- a recent supercell has evolved in
the Corsicana vicinity, which remains capable of producing severe
weather including tornado potential.
With time, the frontal band of storms will continue moving eastward,
posing mainly a damaging wind risk, though with some tornado
potential with embedded rotating updrafts within the band. Ahead of
the line, warm-sector storms are forecast to gradually increase in
coverage/organization -- and these more isolated cells will likely
be accompanied by greater risk for tornadoes, in addition to
As this risk evolves over the next couple of hours, and as bowing
storms farther north continue to advance northeastward,
convection/severe risk will begin to impinge on eastern fringes of
WW 002 and 003. This will require new/downstream issuance of an
additional Tornado Watch or two, to cover the eastward-advancing
risk through much of the evening.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 30959592 30889738 31159835 33179749 34619625 35619443
36819386 37659169 37509075 36119043 33559132 31609285