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Mesoscale Discussion 18
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MD 18 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0018
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

   Areas affected...eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas...east into
   southern Missouri...Arkansas...and northwestern Louisiana

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...3...

   Valid 102255Z - 110100Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2, 3 continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe/tornado risk continues across valid portions of
   Tornado watches 002 and 003, and is increasing to the east, into the
   Arklatex region.  A new watch or watches will be required.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis depicts a weak low/frontal
   wave over the north-central Texas/far south-central Oklahoma area,
   along a baroclinic zone extending from central Missouri
   southwestward across the eastern half of Oklahoma, and then
   south-southwestward across central Texas.  Thunderstorms are
   currently evolving linearly along the cold-frontal portion of the
   boundary across Texas, with a well-developed supercell noted within
   the band southwest of the DFW Metroplex, moving north-northeast at
   45kt.  Farther northeast, across the eastern Oklahoma/northwestern
   Arkansas vicinity, a couple of bowing clusters of storms are moving
   quickly northeastward in the vicinity of the warm-frontal portion of
   the baroclinic zone, where damaging wind risk is evident.

   Meanwhile, a warm/moist/unstable -- but slightly capped -- warm
   sector is indicated ahead of the line, across east Texas and the
   Arklatex region.  Storms have been slow to organize across this area
   ahead of the frontal band of cells, but -- aided by a very
   favorably-sheared environment -- a recent supercell has evolved in
   the Corsicana vicinity, which remains capable of producing severe
   weather including tornado potential.

   With time, the frontal band of storms will continue moving eastward,
   posing mainly a damaging wind risk, though with some tornado
   potential with embedded rotating updrafts within the band.  Ahead of
   the line, warm-sector storms are forecast to gradually increase in
   coverage/organization -- and these more isolated cells will likely
   be accompanied by greater risk for tornadoes, in addition to
   wind-damage potential.  

   As this risk evolves over the next couple of hours, and as bowing
   storms farther north continue to advance northeastward,
   convection/severe risk will begin to impinge on eastern fringes of
   WW 002 and 003.  This will require new/downstream issuance of an
   additional Tornado Watch or two, to cover the eastward-advancing
   risk through much of the evening.

   ..Goss.. 01/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...
   HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30959592 30889738 31159835 33179749 34619625 35619443
               36819386 37659169 37509075 36119043 33559132 31609285
               30959592 

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