Mesoscale Discussion 0026
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0222 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

   Areas affected...Far Northeast LA...Southwest/West-Central MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 110822Z - 110915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A Tornado Watch will be needed soon across far northeast
   LA and southwest/west-central MS.

   DISCUSSION...Expansive convective line extends from southern IL
   through eastern AR across north-central LA and into far southeast
   TX. Recent motion estimates of the line moving across northern LA
   are eastward at 35 kt, with slower motion estimated across portions
   of the line farther south. Given this motion, the northern portion
   of the line is expected to approach the edge of Tornado Watch 8 by
   0930Z. 

   The downstream air mass across far eastern LA and adjacent portions
   of western MS will be characterized by temperatures in the low to
   mid 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and around 1000-1500 J/kg of
   MLCAPE. Very strong vertical shear will also be in place. Recent
   mesoanalysis places 60-65 kt of effective bulk shear and around 600
   m2/s2 of effective storm-relative helicity over the region. This
   environment will support a threat for strong wind gusts and embedded
   QLCS tornadoes and a downstream watch will be needed soon.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 01/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32579198 33079132 33179053 32548984 31229026 31189196
               32579198