Mesoscale Discussion 0032
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0739 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

   Areas affected...Central/Eastern MS...Southeast LA...Western AL

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 11...9...

   Valid 111339Z - 111515Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 11, 9 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for strong wind gusts and embedded QLCS
   tornadoes continues across central/eastern MS and southeast LA. A
   downstream watch will be needed soon across eastern MS and western
   AL.

   DISCUSSION...Extensive convective line continues to move eastward
   across MS and southeast LA. 12Z JAN sounding sampled a strongly
   sheared and modestly buoyant air mass ahead of the line across MS.
   Farther south, 12Z LIX sounding was strongly sheared but a warm
   layer between 850-700 mb resulted in increased convective
   inhibition. Expectation is for the ascent attendant to the shortwave
   trough moving across TX to cool this layer, reducing the convective
   inhibition. Additional moisture advection is anticipated ahead of
   the convective line. Consequently, an increasingly unstable air mass
   with moderate buoyancy  (i.e. MLCAPE 1000 to 1500 J/kg) is expected
   to develop across much of southeast LA, eastern MS and western AL
   during the next few hours. This should allow the persistence of the
   ongoing line through eastern MS into western AL with an attendant
   threat for strong wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. A downstream
   watch will likely be needed over portions of the area to address
   this threat.

   Recent radar trends within the convective line suggest the southern
   end over southeast LA may become more dominant over the next hour or
   two. 9km CAPPI shows stronger, more persistent  updrafts over
   southeast LA while those over MS have started to weaken. This
   portion of the line is also oriented a bit more orthogonal to the
   deep shear vector, suggesting some increase in forward speed is
   possible.

   ..Mosier.. 01/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   32909002 33348946 33508811 32868736 30678801 29468951
               29439125 31379087 32909002