Mesoscale Discussion 0041
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southern/central AL into the FL
   Panhandle and southwestern GA

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

   Valid 112026Z - 112200Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe risk continues across southern portions of
   Tornado Watch 13. A downstream watch into parts of southwestern GA,
   far southeastern AL, and more of the Florida Panhandle will likely
   be needed in the next hour or two (80% chance).

   DISCUSSION...The southern portion of an extensive squall line
   extending across much of AL has struggled to intensify this
   afternoon, with only isolated damaging wind reports received over
   the past several hours across southern AL. This may be due to the
   stronger large-scale forcing attendant to an upper trough remaining
   generally displaced to the north of southern AL and the western FL
   Panhandle. Still, the environment downstream of the ongoing line
   remains favorable for severe storms, with MLCAPE around 500-1000
   J/kg and 50-60+ kt of effective bulk shear present. Isolated to
   scattered damaging winds should remain the primary threat with
   mainly a linear mode observed, with the best potential existing with
   any northeastward-moving bowing segment embedded within the overall
   line. Brief/isolated tornadoes also remain possible as the VWP from
   KEVX shows nearly 50 kt of 0-1 km shear, and mesoanalysis estimates
   400-500 m2/s2 of effective SRH ahead of the line. Based on recent
   radar trends, a downstream watch into parts of southwestern GA, far
   southeastern AL, and more of the FL Panhandle will likely be needed
   in the next hour or two, with 80% chance of issuance.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 01/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   30388736 31718675 32528650 32748636 32728519 31938508
               31818439 31378434 30658454 30108480 29748500 29768531
               29878541 30118582 30308626 30368676 30258742 30388736