Mesoscale Discussion 0048
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0740 PM CST Sat Jan 11 2020

   Areas affected...western NC...upstate SC...portions of GA into the
   eastern FL Peninsula

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 17...

   Valid 120140Z - 120315Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 17 continues.

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible,
   mainly across far eastern GA into upstate SC and western NC, the
   next few hours. The line of storms further south into southwest GA
   and the FL Panhandle should continue weakening with eastward extent.

   DISCUSSION...As upper forcing for ascent continues to lift northeast
   toward the upper Ohio Valley/central Appalachians, and loss of
   daytime heating results in low level stabilization, the QLCS across
   GA/FL has begun to weak in some areas. Lightning trends continue to
   diminish and 3 km CAPPI trends have also shown decreasing
   reflectivity trends. However, a few stronger bowing segments remain
   across eastern GA into upstate SC and western NC. Given the strength
   of low level flow and fast storm motion, sporadic strong/damaging
   gusts will continue to be possible the next few hours as the line
   continues to track eastward into mid 60s dew points and modest
   MLCAPE of around 250-500 J/kg. As surface-based instability
   continues to wane, the tornado threat also will diminish, though a
   brief spin-up can not be ruled out in the short-term. WFOs GSP and
   CAE have locally extended WW 17 to account for a continued severe
   threat with various LEWP features tracking east toward the edge of
   the initial watch delineation. While not immediately expected,
   trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance into parts of
   NC later tonight. 

   Further south, strong low level flow and a tongue of greater
   instability continue to sustain a line of storms from southwest GA
   into the FL Panhandle. However, low level inhibition and weak
   instability reside just downstream of this convection. As forcing
   continues to diminish, the line should weak as it encounters a less
   favorable thermodynamic environment.

   ..Leitman.. 01/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   31848410 32528338 33218300 33748262 34358250 34948243
               35378214 35748182 36198139 36298089 36178028 35898001
               35298004 34858027 34028077 33138133 31548270 31178323
               30608399 30428440 30508471 30728483 30938476 31848410