Mesoscale Discussion 0050
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1249 AM CST Sun Jan 12 2020

   Areas affected...Coastal NC...Northeast Coastal SC

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19...20...

   Valid 120649Z - 120815Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 19, 20
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts will continue across
   coastal NC and northeast portions of coastal SC. A brief tornado or
   two also remains possible. Downstream watch issuance is not
   anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...VAD wind profiles from both LTX and MHX continue to
   show very strong low-level flow (i.e. 55-60 kts at 1-2 kft), which
   is supporting large low-level hodographs and very strong low-level
   shear. Modest instability also exists across much of the region,
   supported by dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. This strongly
   sheared and modestly buoyant air mass is expected to remain in place
   as the broken convective line continues eastward/southeastward into
   the region. 

   A gradual weakening has been noted over the majority of the
   convective line over the past hour or so. However, more recent
   trends have shown localized updraft strengthening across central
   portions of coastal NC. This general trend for localized but brief
   storm intensification is expected to continue. As such, cells within
   the line may occasionally/briefly intensify enough to produce
   damaging downburst winds. Given the strong low-level shear, a
   tornado or two cannot be ruled out. However, the overall severe
   threat will continue to gradually diminish as the storms struggle
   with updraft strength and remain primarily outflow-dominant. Limited
   severe potential will preclude downstream watch issuance.

   ..Mosier/Grams.. 01/12/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35047848 36107656 35887572 34697684 33887819 33577914
               34147943 35047848