Mesoscale Discussion 0052
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1146 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2020

   Areas affected...eastern North Carolina and a small part of
   northeastern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 131746Z - 131945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection approaching Fayetteville, NC has some
   organization and may pose a risk of wind gusts approaching severe
   levels through the discussion area.  A WW issuance is not
   anticipated for this threat, though convective trends are being
   monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Convection across western and southern portions of the
   discussion has exhibited an uptick in the recent hour based on radar
   and lightning imagery.  A complex near Scotland/Hoke counties in
   southern North Carolina has exhibited some organization and a bowing
   segment.  Convection in Horry County, South Carolina has exhibited
   some rotation in the last half hour and an increase in lightning as
   well.  These storms are in a weakly unstable environment
   characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE.  Shear profiles are mostly
   unidirectional but do increase in speed with height, with 35-40 kt
   mid-level flow supporting the observed organization with cells
   across the discussion area.  Slightly more low-level backing in
   surface winds across southern North Carolina may be supporting
   updraft rotation noted in that area.  Though the overall severe risk
   with this activity should be isolated over the course of the
   afternoon, an isolated damaging wind gust or two cannot be
   completely ruled out.  Convective trends are being monitored, but
   the issuance of a WW is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Cook/Hart.. 01/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...

   LAT...LON   35497953 35877865 36027709 35607642 34997639 34217734
               33817865 33958002 34428023 34838000 35497953