Mesoscale Discussion 0053
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CST Tue Jan 14 2020

   Areas affected...A small portion of southeast Texas into
   southwestern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142150Z - 142315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Further intensification of thunderstorm activity is
   possible through 5-6 PM CST, perhaps including the evolution of an
   isolated supercell, accompanied by at least some risk for severe
   hail.

   DISCUSSION...Models suggest that mid-level temperatures are
   gradually beginning to warm inland of upper Texas and Louisiana
   coastal areas, and mid/upper forcing for ascent appears weak. 
   However, at least attempts at vigorous convective development are
   ongoing along a lingering low-level confluence band across the upper
   Texas coastal plain into parts of southwest/west central Louisiana. 
   This is occurring in the presence of moderate to strong deep-layer
   vertical shear, beneath 35-40+ kt west-southwesterly 500 mb flow, as
   boundary-layer instability maximizes (surface dew points near 70f
   are supporting CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg) late this
   afternoon.  

   Aided by continuing modest inflow of this moist/unstable air,
   mid-level inhibition within a corridor south/southeast of Jasper TX
   toward the Folk Polk LA area may be weak enough to allow for a
   period of intensifying thunderstorm development.  This could include
   the evolution of an isolated supercell, which may be accompanied by
   at least some risk for severe hail.

   ..Kerr.. 01/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30929402 31239339 31099287 30579312 30319410 30579416
               30929402