Mesoscale Discussion 0054
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0311 PM CST Wed Jan 15 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Arkansas...northern
   Mississippi...western/middle Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152111Z - 152315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Further thunderstorm development and intensification is
   possible late this afternoon, with scattered strong storms posing at
   least some severe hail and wind risk, particularly during the 4-6 PM
   CST time frame.

   DISCUSSION...As short wave ridging begins to build across the
   southern Plains, a couple of smaller-scale short wave impulses may
   be suppressing mid-level heights within broader-scale anticyclonic
   flow across the Ozark Plateau and middle/lower Mississippi Valley
   region.  In the wake of these features, weak lower/mid tropospheric
   warm advection also appears to be contributing to large-scale ascent
   across southern Arkansas, near the nose of a plume of modestly warm
   and capping elevated mixed-layer area (roughly delineated by the +6
   C isotherm at 700 mb).

   While not particularly strong, this lift is at least contributing to
   attempts at convective development, evident in latest radar and
   satellite imagery.  Activity west of Bowling Green KY, southwestward
   toward Memphis TN, may be rooted within a relatively moist boundary
   layer characterized by CAPE up to around 500 J/kg, ahead of an
   initial weak cold front.  Across southern Arkansas, surface dew
   points in the upper 60s to near 70f appear to be contributing to
   CAPE up to 1000 J/kg.  This is all in the presence of strongly
   sheared 40-60 kt westerly deep-layer mean flow.

   Given this environment, a period of intensifying thunderstorm
   development still seems possible late this afternoon, with isolated
   to widely scattered severe storms possible.  This could include both
   isolated supercell development and the evolution of a small
   organizing cluster of two, which may pose a risk for marginally
   severe hail and wind.

   ..Kerr/Hart.. 01/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   34659142 35149027 35448943 35838847 36508751 37078622
               36008654 35048737 34118880 33159219 34009347 34659142