Mesoscale Discussion 0064
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0842 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

   Areas affected...western Washington State

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211442Z - 211645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A loosely organized band of convection just west of the WA
   coastline is likely to produce gusty winds, and a locally damaging
   gust or small hail cannot be completely ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Forcing aloft associated with a mid-level wave
   approaching the western Washington coastline has resulted in
   development of a loosely organized convective band located along a
   line from near 25 W UIL to 30 SW HQM.  This band is pivoting
   northeastward toward the coast in an environment characterized by
   very weak buoyancy (250 J/kg MUCAPE - concentrated near the coast)
   and strong shear (80-kt 0-6 km shear along with 85 kt mid-level
   flow).  The radar presentation of this line and present of
   occasional lightning flashes suggests that this convection may be
   deep enough for downward transport of higher momentum air to the
   surface, potentially resulting in gusty winds and an isolated
   damaging wind gust or two.  Small hail is also possible near
   stronger cores given very cold temperatures aloft (-27C at 500 hPa).
    This threat should be spatially focused along immediate coastal
   areas as most CAMs/high-res guidance suggests that this line should
   dissipate with eastward/inland progression into an airmass with
   somewhat weaker buoyancy.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 01/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SEW...PQR...

   LAT...LON   48352522 48572437 48312349 47472314 46712317 46282377
               46352428 46882461 48352522