Mesoscale Discussion 0065
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0347 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2020

   Areas affected...central and eastern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242147Z - 242345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual uptick in convection has been noted across
   central South Carolina and eastern Georgia.  The overall severe
   threat, while not zero, should remain low over the next hour or two.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic and satellite imagery indicate gradually
   developing convection resulting from convergence along a pre-frontal
   wind shift located from near 30 W CLT southward to near CAE to 25 SE
   AGS.  This convection remains relatively shallow (evidenced by the
   lack of lightning) and resides in a weakly buoyant airmass
   characterized by 250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE.  It is uncertain how quickly
   this convection will intensify given negligible forcing aloft,
   although point forecast soundings suggest that ongoing convection
   will have the ability to ingest near-surface-based parcels over
   time, and strong vertical shear may encourage updraft rotation with
   a few cells.  These trends suggest a low-end potential for isolated
   damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado - especially with
   cellular convection that can organize as convection shifts eastward
   across the discussion area.

   ..Cook/Grams.. 01/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   34118103 34508085 34738032 34647982 34387956 33837950
               33097971 32328038 32218127 32748144 33538120 34118103