Mesoscale Discussion 0066
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2020

   Areas affected...portions of eastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 250821Z - 251015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief
   tornado will be possible across parts of eastern NC the next few
   hours.

   DISCUSSION...A line of convection extending from Northampton County
   southward through Duplin County has shown some intensification over
   the last hour with increases in reflectivity and a few lightning
   strikes noted. A tongue of modest MLCAPE generally less than 500
   J/kg will expand northeast across eastern NC over the next few hours
   as surface dewpoints in the upper 50s creep northward toward the
   NC/VA border. RAP forecast soundings and VWP data from the MHX 88-D
   show vertical shear supportive of embedded supercells, and backed
   low-level flow is enhancing 0-1 km SRH, supporting low-level
   rotation. However, modest instability and forcing for ascent will
   generally limit overall intensity. Nevertheless, a few strong gusts
   or a brief tornado cannot be completely ruled out over the next 2-4
   hours.  This threat is expected to remain sufficiently isolated and
   limited in time and space such that a watch is not expected.

   ..Leitman.. 01/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   36237767 36377725 36407696 36407669 36247631 36117610
               35767595 34947615 34557672 34337735 34347773 34467796
               34637798 35087806 35707797 36237767