Mesoscale Discussion 0067
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1142 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 280542Z - 281045Z

   SUMMARY...A quick transition to snow is expected over the next few
   hours, with up to 1 inch/hr rates possible in a few locations. The
   most likely time frame for the heaviest snow would be 08-12Z.

   DISCUSSION...Precipitation (with embedded convective elements) has
   steadily been increasing across portions of the central High Plains,
   in tandem with an ejecting surface low and associated mid-level
   shortwave trough, with increased deep-layer ascent noted. Currently,
   low-level WAA has introduced above-freezing temperatures within the
   850-700 mb layer over parts of southwest KS into the OK Panhandle,
   where mainly rain has been observed over the past couple of hours
   (based on ASOS station measurements and the latest KDDC
   dual-polarimetric radar data). 

   Nonetheless, low-level CAA is beginning to usher in from the north,
   in association with a snow band, oriented along a MCK-GLD-ITR line,
   per latest KGLD dual-polarimetric radar data. The surface-700 mb
   profile is expected to drop below freezing at/before 06Z across
   southwest KS into the OK Panhandle with the approach of the
   aforementioned snow band, with a near-saturated to saturated
   low-level vertical profile developing (per latest RAP forecast
   soundings). Continued deep-layer ascent, along with 50-100 J/kg
   MUCAPE (near the KS/OK border) will promote efficient dendrite
   production within a 700-1000 m deep, saturated dendritic growth
   layer, particularly where convective elements manifest. Up to 1
   inch/hr rates are possible, with both deterministic and ensemble
   guidance (21Z SREF, 00Z HREF, 04Z HRRR) suggesting the most likely
   period for the heaviest rates would be 08-12Z, mainly along/north of
   the KS/OK border areas.

   ..Squitieri.. 01/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36599985 36520091 36570157 36690190 37110189 37760172
               38400117 38470109 38830018 39009936 38689884 37909858
               37229901 36599985