Mesoscale Discussion 0070
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0937 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2020

   Areas affected...South Florida

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 21...

   Valid 010337Z - 010500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 21
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A mature bowing segment is moving across south Florida
   over the next 1 to 2 hours. Damaging winds will be the primary
   threat, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...The bowing segment moving toward south Florida has
   reached maturity with a well-defined rear-inflow jet entering
   southern Monroe County. Overall, relatively weak flow in the lowest
   3 km (peak wind 20 knots from KEY 00Z sounding) is likely limiting
   the intensity of this bow with overall wind speeds likely in the 40
   to 50 mph range. However, some isolated stronger wind corridors are
   possible within this line. In addition, some weak mesovorticies have
   been present, especially along and north of the apex of the bow. An
   isolated tornado may be possible in this region, but the
   aforementioned weak low-level winds should limit the overall tornado
   threat. 

   Temperatures in the mid 70s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s
   should provide ample instability (500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) for this
   line to continue across the southern tip of Florida, impacting the
   Miami area between 11PM and midnight EST.

   ..Bentley.. 02/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   25628163 25908125 26068047 26068005 25647983 24968024
               24518079 24218153 24178178 24318188 24708172 25168152
               25628163