Mesoscale Discussion 0072
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0942 AM CST Sat Feb 01 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the FL Keys and the far southern FL
   Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 011542Z - 011815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts may occur with storms moving
   eastward, but the threat will likely remain too isolated/marginal to
   justify watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of a well-organized MCS passage earlier
   this morning, widespread cloudiness remains persistent across much
   of the southern FL Peninsula and the Keys. This should temper
   diurnal heating somewhat across this region, although weak low-level
   warm advection will continue ahead of a southeastward-moving cold
   front. Another line of storms has formed this morning about 85 miles
   west of Key West FL. As this activity spreads eastward through the
   remainder of the morning and into the early afternoon, it should
   encounter a weakly unstable airmass, with MLCAPE potentially
   reaching up to 500-1000 J/kg. Even though low-level winds remain
   weak, around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear should provide some
   storm organization. Current trajectory of this line and most
   short-term model guidance suggest that the stronger cores may have a
   tendency to remain over the FL Straits, rather than impacting land.
   Regardless, there appears to be at least some chance for isolated
   strong wind gusts associated with this convection to impact the Keys
   and perhaps the far southern FL Peninsula over the next few hours.
   Ongoing showers farther north into more of south FL casts
   considerable doubt on strong/severe storm potential along the cold
   front later today.

   ..Gleason/Hart.. 02/01/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

   LAT...LON   24188242 24228315 24608287 24848173 25158102 25438052
               25708022 25618005 25148017 24478081 24218176 24188242