Mesoscale Discussion 0074
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

   Areas affected...Central and northeastern Oklahoma into southwestern
   and central Missouri...and adjacent portions of southeastern Kansas
   and northwestern Arkansas

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 050802Z - 051100Z

   SUMMARY...Mixed winter precipitation, at rates of .10-.25 inches
   (liquid equivalent) per hour, appears likely to continue rapidly
   developing northeastward along the I-44 corridor of central through
   northeast Oklahoma, and southwestern through south central Missouri
   by 13-15Z.

   DISCUSSION...An elongated area of ascent, largely forced by
   frontogenetic forcing within the 850-700 mb layer, continues to
   rapidly develop northeastward, roughly into and along the Interstate
   44 corridor of Oklahoma.  This is accompanied by a substantive band
   of moderate to occasionally heavy precipitation, mostly a
   sleet/freezing rain mix.

   It appears that strongest lift will continue to shift along the I-44
   corridor, as far northeast as south central Missouri by 13-15Z, when
   some weakening may commence. Models suggest that this will largely
   remain confined to a quasi-stationary band of 1000-500 mb thickness
   between 540-546 dm, which parallels the crest of broad mid-level
   ridging across the southern Plains into lower/middle Mississippi
   Valley.  As such, lower/mid tropospheric layers above freezing may
   generally maintain a mix of sleet and freezing rain.  However, a
   gradual cooling near/below 850 mb across central/northeast Oklahoma,
   in the wake of a developing frontal wave, may result in a gradual
   changeover of precipitation.  This may be to mostly sleet, but
   perhaps with a narrow corridor of moderate to heavy snow on the
   western edge of the precipitation shield, particularly near/north of
   I-44.

   ..Kerr.. 02/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35379818 37009613 38399286 37799167 35589569 34779675
               34569754 34839804 35379818