Mesoscale Discussion 0075
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

   Areas affected...southwest through central Louisiana...southwest
   through central Mississippi and extreme western Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 051628Z - 051800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to gradually increase in
   intensity and organization initially from southwest through central
   Louisiana, and eventually into southwest through central Mississippi
   into the afternoon. Supercells and bowing segments posing a risk for
   damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the main threats. Trends
   are being monitored for a tornado watch.

   DISCUSSION...A stationary front extends from northwest AL to a weak
   surface low in northern LA where it becomes a cold front and
   continuing into southeast TX. Forcing for ascent within the exit
   region of an upper jet rounding the base of an upper trough is
   beginning to overtake the western part of the warm sector across
   southwest through central LA. This is manifested by a recent
   increase in thunderstorms along and behind the front southwest LA
   through eastern TX. The southerly low-level jet will also respond
   and become coupled with the exit upper jet region, and is forecast
   to increase to 50+ kt this afternoon. The 12Z RAOB data from Lake
   Charles already showed moderate instability with 2500 J/kg MUCAPE in
   warm sector. Storms should soon become surface based and organize as
   supercells as temperatures rise through the low 70s F. The storms
   will subsequently spread northeast into MS this afternoon. The
   strengthening low and mid-level jets will support 50+ kt effective
   bulk shear and 200-300 m2/s2 storm relative helicity with largest
   hodographs expected east of the northeast migrating surface low.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 02/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   31009318 32829069 33608920 33868835 33388818 32378906
               30949124 30349273 31009318