Mesoscale Discussion 0076
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

   Areas affected...Southeastern Louisiana...far southern
   Mississippi...southwestern Alabama...western Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051716Z - 051915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Low-level wind fields on KLIX/KMOD VAD suggest potential
   for low-level storm rotation. Storm mode and upstream precipitation
   should limit the overall threat, but isolated strong wind gusts and
   a brief tornado are possible. Should trends in storm intensity
   increase, a WW will be considered.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has develop over the past 2 hours
   across portions of the Mississippi Delta region and progress
   northeastward. Storms along the southwestern flank of this activity
   have shown some transient and weak low-level rotation. Updrafts have
   remained rather weak with only a few cells showing 50 dBZ cores on
   the 7 km CAPPI. This is likely due to warm air aloft that was
   evident on the 12Z LIX and JAN soundings. Further limiting the
   strength of this activity will be the ongoing rainfall downstream of
   the stronger cores in LA/MS. Nevertheless, modest to moderate
   low-level SRH (around 100-200 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer) on
   KLIX/KMOD VAD profiles suggest some storm rotation is possible.
   Despite the negative factors, isolated strong wind gusts and a brief
   tornado are possible particularly along the southwestern flank where
   inflow would be less impacted by precipitation. Trends in storm
   intensity will be monitored for possible WW issuance.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 02/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30109041 30788987 31518875 31898733 31768669 31098646
               30298696 29718805 29448877 29378927 29649014 29899040
               30109041