Mesoscale Discussion 0077
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Louisiana through southern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051919Z - 052045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Potential exits for storms to organize and become
   supercellular over southeast LA into southern MS. Trends are being
   monitored for a possible tornado watch southeast of tornado watch
   22.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage and intensity across
   the warm sector over southeast LA during the past hour, likely in
   association with a strengthening southerly low-level jet within the
   exit region of an approaching upper jet. Latest VWP data from
   Slidell show an increase in hodograph size with 0-1 km storm
   relative helicity up to 250 m2/s2 along with 45-50 kt 0-6 km shear.
   Widespread cloud cover is limiting diabatic heating of the boundary
   layer with temperatures only from 69-73 F, suggesting some of the
   updrafts over southeast LA might still be slightly elevated.
   Moreover, the 18Z Jackson sounding showed warming in the 850-700 mb
   layer which, in addition to weak solar insolation, might be serving
   to limit low-level updraft accelerations. Further warming of the
   surface layer and the increase in forcing for ascent might serve to
   offset these limiting factors and result in a gradual increase in
   storm organization this afternoon.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 02/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   29999236 31319049 30968939 29729036 29539103 29999236