Mesoscale Discussion 0078
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

   Areas affected...northeast Louisiana through southwest and central
   Mississippi

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 22...

   Valid 051939Z - 052115Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 22 continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind, some hail and a few tornadoes is
   expected to persist through the afternoon with primary threat area
   gradually spreading into central MS.

   DISCUSSION...The warm sector from northeast LA through central MS
   has been slow to warm due to widespread clouds. Moreover, the
   special RAOB data from Jackson MS has warmed in the 850-700 mb
   layer. These factors might be limiting low-level updraft
   accelerations and overall storm organization so far, despite
   favorable low-level hodographs and strong 0-6 km shear.
   Nevertheless, continued slow heating of the surface layer with
   partial cloud breaks, along with deeper forcing for ascent glancing
   the warm sector might be sufficient to overcome the limiting factors
   and result in better storm organization this afternoon. The most
   favorable environment will likely remain east of the surface low
   currently located over northeast LA as it tracks northeast along the
   front through central MS this afternoon. A few supercells and bowing
   segments capable of tornadoes and damaging wind remain possible.

   ..Dial.. 02/05/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33028847 31349083 31099184 31449230 32629112 33638930
               33028847