Mesoscale Discussion 0086
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southern and eastern Alabama...western
   Georgia and the Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 060802Z - 060930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is expected through
   daybreak and beyond, which may be accompanied by increasing
   potential to produce tornadoes and/or locally damaging wind gusts. 
   A watch probably will be needed within the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow persists across
   much of the Southeast, but models suggest that a gradual transition
   toward a cyclonic regime may commence by 12-15Z as far east as the
   eastern Gulf States, as positively tilted large-scale upstream
   troughing takes on a more neutral tilt.  In response to ongoing
   embedded short wave developments, elongated surface troughing now
   approaching the Appalachians is forecast to deepen through daybreak
   and beyond.  By 12Z this morning, strongest surface pressure falls
   may become focused along an axis across southeast Alabama through
   into the immediate lee of the southern Appalachians.  It appears
   that this will be accompanied by strengthening southerly low-level
   flow, including within a fairly broad jet around 850 mb (to 50-60+
   kt) across much of southern/eastern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle,
   and Georgia into the western Carolinas.

   Where this regime overlies the moist warm sector (characterized by
   surface dew points of 65-70+ F), an increase in mostly discrete
   thunderstorm development appears possible initially, aided by
   forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection.  A weak
   warm front currently extending across south central through
   southeast Alabama has been a focus for enhanced low-level shear and
   isolated convective development the past few hours.  If this
   boundary persists, models are suggestive that it may shift
   northeastward ahead of the eastward advancing cold front, and extend
   along a corridor across east central Alabama, southward along or
   just east of the southern Georgia/Alabama state border area by 12Z.
   Regardless, as low-level hodographs enlarge beneath the
   strengthening  850 mb jet, the environment may become increasingly
   conducive to supercells which could become capable of producing
   tornadoes, within the warm sector across southeastern Alabama and
   the Florida Panhandle.  

   With regard to the more extensive ongoing convection, aided by
   forcing along the cold front across southeastern Mississippi into
   west central Alabama, and pre-frontal warm advection across north
   central/northeast Alabama, activity may tend to become increasingly
   undercut by cool convective outflow or post-frontal air.  As it does
   any associated severe weather potential probably will diminish.

   ..Kerr/Edwards.. 02/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31148803 32338690 33268571 33498466 32688402 29778524
               29508697 30128787 31148803