Mesoscale Discussion 0092
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1055 AM CST Thu Feb 06 2020

   Areas affected...northeastern North Carolina through southeast
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 061655Z - 061800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe threat with a risk for damaging wind and isolated
   tornadoes is expected to spread into northeast NC and southeast VA
   after 18Z. A new tornado watch will likely be needed soon for these
   areas.

   DISCUSSION...As of mid day the leading edge of a band of intense
   storms with organized structures extends from north central NC
   through western SC moving east and northeast at 45 kt. A warm front
   located from southeast VA into north central NC will continue
   advancing north. The warm sector is destabilizing with some cloud
   breaks already observed across eastern NC. Temperatures warming into
   the upper 60s to low 70s F should support MLCAPE increasing to 500
   to 1000 J/kg this afternoon. Very strong wind profiles with up to 60
   kt effective bulk shear and 300-500 m2/s2 0-1 km storm relative
   helicity will continue to support embedded bowing structures,
   mesovortices and supercells as the line advances east.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 02/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   36417834 36757777 37277641 36627587 35817598 35167861
               36417834