Mesoscale Discussion 0095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2020

   Areas affected...northeastern South Carolina through southeastern
   North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 062100Z - 062200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and isolated tornadoes is
   expected to continue spreading east into northeastern SC and
   southeastern NC into the evening. A new tornado watch will likely be
   needed prior to 22Z.

   DISCUSSION...An expansive squall line with occasional embedded
   organized structures extends from northeast NC southwestward into
   the western FL Panhandle. Widespread cloud cover has limited
   diabatic heating the the pre-frontal warm sector, which along with
   weak mid-level lapse rates have maintained a marginal thermodynamic
   environment with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This along with deeper
   forcing attending the upper trough remaining well west of warm
   sector has resulted in convection developing ahead of the squall
   line continuing to struggle to deepen and organize. However,
   potential for storms to organize will persist along advancing squall
   line as it continues east within the strongly sheared, but
   marginally unstable environment where large hodographs are
   supportive of embedded supercells and mesovortices with bowing
   segments.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 02/06/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...

   LAT...LON   34258004 34847885 35297720 34937628 34097793 33807874
               33347922 33498004 34258004