Mesoscale Discussion 0097
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0632 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Georgia...eastern South
   Carolina...northern Florida

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 29...32...

   Valid 070032Z - 070230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 29, 32 continues.

   SUMMARY...Localized wind damage remains possible from northern
   Florida into southeastern Georgia and South Carolina. A brief
   tornado cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Extensive rain and thunderstorms continue to advance
   eastward in association with a cold front, with the strongest
   activity currently extending from Apalachee bay into southeast GA.
   Here, warmer boundary-layer temperatures are contributing to between
   500 and 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 

   00Z soundings indicate a substantial midlevel warm layer at JAX, but
   cooling air aloft exists along and west of the cold front. Wind
   profiles remain strong area-wide, but a considerable amount of
   boundary-layer mixing has occurred over FL where surface winds are
   gusting over 30 mph, reducing 0-1 km shear.

   As the line of storms continues east, deep-layer ascent should erode
   capping, allowing storms to reach the East Coast. By virtue of such
   strong mean wind speeds, any of the more substantial parts of the
   line will be capable of localized wind damage. A brief tornado
   cannot be ruled out with cells embedded within the line, especially
   if localized backing of the low-level winds can occur near the
   surface trough.

   ..Jewell.. 02/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...MLB...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29668372 30488335 31678279 32658182 33118083 33298025
               33187989 32927964 32707971 32318033 31628103 30948132
               30138121 29768130 29378158 28858217 28558271 28218377
               28348435 28738421 29668372