Mesoscale Discussion 0099
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0709 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and far Northeastern South
   Carolina

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 31...

   Valid 070109Z - 070245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 31 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated wind damage or a brief/weak
   tornado continues.

   DISCUSSION...A band of convection continues to progress through
   parts of eastern North Carolina and far northeast South Carolina,
   and has shown periodic attempts at becoming more organized. Despite
   ample shear across the region (50+ kt effective bulk shear),
   instability remains quite meager (500 J/kg MLCAPE) ahead of the
   line. These trends are supported by the 00z MHX observational
   sounding, which showed 130 m^2/s^2 of effective SRH and 475 J/kg of
   MLCAPE, with an uptick in low-level SRH present on recent MHX VAD
   profiles.

   As cyclogenesis occurs this evening, the low-level jet is forecast
   to intensify, resulting in elongated hodographs (200-300 m^2/s^2
   effective SRH) and some moistening of the low levels. This process
   may result in some destabilization ahead of the convective line.
   Thus, the threat for an isolated damaging wind gust and brief/weak
   tornado remains possible before the convective band moves offshore.

   ..Karstens.. 02/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   35857690 35337764 34657850 34047946 33447985 33367873
               34627658 35217550 36007528 36227594 35857690