Mesoscale Discussion 0104
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0432 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020

   Areas affected...northern WV...western into north-central PA...parts
   of western NY

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071032Z - 071400Z

   SUMMARY...Snowfall rates are forecast to increase to around 1 inch
   per hour (locally higher) during the 530-900am EST period.

   DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a precipitation shield gradually
   expanding in coverage across the upper OH Valley early this morning.
   Recent (4-5am EST) surface observations at Parkersburg, WV and
   Cambridge, OH in the upper OH Valley have recorded heavy snow as
   strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent rapidly approaches the
   region from the southwest.  Model forecasts show a
   northeast-translating area of strong 700-mb frontogenesis moving
   from northern WV/southwest PA at 5am EST into north-central PA by
   8am EST.  Concurrent with the frontogenetic forcing, SREF model
   guidance indicates 1 inch per hour rates will accompany this
   northeast-translating forcing for ascent.  Therefore, 1 inch per
   hour snowfall rates (locally higher during sub-hour bursts) appear
   likely this morning beginning in northern WV and developing
   northeast across western PA into parts of western NY.

   ..Smith.. 02/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40308067 41248010 42547788 42477742 42087736 39427978
               39188015 39228063 39548088 40308067