Mesoscale Discussion 0105
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0556 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020

   Areas affected...northern VA...District of Columbia...central MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071156Z - 071300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe gusts (50-60 mph) are possible
   with a narrow, low-topped convective band rapidly moving across
   northern VA and the greater D.C. area during the 12z-1330z period.

   DISCUSSION...KLWX radar imagery shows an intensifying band of
   low-topped convection with a few lightning flashes with the deeper
   convection exhibiting 20kft echo tops.  Surface analysis shows a
   surface low immediately northwest of D.C. developing to the
   east-northeast.  A narrow plume of weakly buoyant air, with surface
   temperatures in the upper 50s and dewpoints in the upper 50s, is
   located downstream of the convective band over northern/eastern VA
   into MD.  Objective analysis indicates around 250 J/kg SBCAPE with
   40 kt effective shear.  Given the strong, deep forcing for ascent
   co-located with weak instability, it is possible a few strong to
   locally severe gusts may accompany the bowing portions of the
   convective band.  The damaging-gust threat appears too confined in
   space/time to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 02/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39047766 39257701 39187648 38647665 38297716 37927819
               39047766