Mesoscale Discussion 0106
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0850 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020

   Areas affected...southeastern PA/southern NJ into the Delmarva
   Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071450Z - 071615Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Low-topped convection -- and potential for a couple of
   strong/near-severe gusts -- will continue for another 1-2 hours
   before diminishing/moving offshore.

   DISCUSSION...Bands of low-topped convection (roughly 20kft) ahead of
   a fast-moving cold front continue shifting across the Chesapeake Bay
   and adjacent southeastern PA.  Lightning has diminished
   substantially over the past hour, in line with morning RAOBs and
   objective analyses showing an increasingly stable airmass with
   eastward extent.  Still, with very strong low-level flow evident (70
   kt west-southwesterly wind at 1km currently observed by KDOX WSR-88D
   VWP), potential for a few strong gusts will persist for the next
   hour or two, possibly as far northeast as central NJ where mid to
   upper 50s surface temperatures/dewpoints are indicated.  Given the
   limited temporal and spatial extent of this risk area, a WW will not
   be issued.

   ..Goss/Thompson.. 02/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...

   LAT...LON   37927562 37037593 38517635 39827592 40527541 40587506
               39997450 38747553 37927562