Mesoscale Discussion 0107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0858 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern upstate New York into central
   Vermont and far west New Hampshire

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 071458Z - 071900Z

   SUMMARY...A transition to all snow is expected across portions of
   the Hudson Valley into northern New England over the next couple of
   hours. Heavy snow is expected, with up to 2 inch/hr rates possible
   in some locations, mainly within the 16-20Z time frame.

   DISCUSSION...A 980 mb surface low is expected to progress across New
   England, deepening through the afternoon beneath an intensifying 300
   mb jet streak and associated increasing upper-level divergence. As
   such, 925-700 mb warm air and moisture advection will continue to
   amplify along the eastern to north-northwestern periphery of the
   low. 

   Current surface observations indicate that heavy snow is already
   underway across portions of eastern New York per latest KTYX
   dual-polarimetric data, where the greatest short-term threat of 1
   inch/hr rates are expected to persist. A strong 700 mb frontogenesis
   signal is present across portions of Upstate New York (per latest
   mesoanalysis), amidst a sub-freezing tropospheric profile which is
   saturated throughout a deep-layer, and this region of favorable
   ascent is expected to intensify as it translates to the northeast
   with the strengthening surface low. Very efficient snowfall
   production is expected in the dendritic growth zone across portions
   of northern New England, where some of the latest high-resolution
   model guidance (including the 12Z HREF) depicts up to 2 inch/hr
   rates possible, particularly across far northeast New York into
   northern Vermont in the 16-20Z period.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42857553 43327545 43407546 44227476 44697414 44907339
               45017286 44997217 44937183 44797174 44467185 43957205
               43627231 43257281 42767372 42597458 42857553