Mesoscale Discussion 0114
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of western Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 092134Z - 100030Z

   SUMMARY...Locally heavier snow is possible with a zonally oriented
   band of precipitation currently moving over Lake Michigan, with up
   to 1 inch/hr rates possible in a few locations, mainly before 00Z.

   DISCUSSION...As a 700 mb shortwave traverses the Upper Great Lakes
   beneath broad surface-700 mb warm air and moisture advection,
   deep-layer ascent will promote the continued lifting of a saturated,
   sub-freezing airmass. KMKX and KGRR dual-polarimetric doppler radar
   data depict a primary, zonally oriented band of heavy snow, now
   crossing far southeast Wisconsin and Lake Michigan, which is
   expected to continue into west-central and central Lower Michigan
   over the next few hours. Lift is sufficient within a deep, saturated
   dendritic growth zone to support occasional 1 inch/hr snowfall rates
   with this snowband.

   Latest HRRR guidance however, depicts overall gradual decreasing
   snowfall rates, as deep-layer ascent slowly weakens, and mid-level
   drier air begins to usher in from the west. As such, the greatest
   threat for heavier snow will likely be from present to roughly
   around 00Z.

   ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   42738408 42538467 42398540 42408622 42808616 43368642
               43738648 43878643 43938592 43748502 43398437 43358429
               42738408