Mesoscale Discussion 0115
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0513 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2020

   Areas affected...South-central OK...North-central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 092313Z - 100115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few strong thunderstorms are possible this evening
   across south-central OK and north-central TX. Gusty winds and
   perhaps marginally severe hail are the primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...A narrow wedge of boundary-layer warming has
   contributed to relatively steep low-level lapse rates across the Big
   Country into north-central TX ahead of the surface front. This plume
   is contributing to deeper convection along the wind shift across
   south-central OK. Even so, frontal ascent appears necessary for
   these parcels to reach their LFC, though a warm nose near 700mb may
   be suppressing updraft strength. Latest thinking is scattered
   thunderstorms will continue to develop along the frontal zone over
   south-central OK with a gradual southward evolution expected as the
   boundary settles into TX. With LLJ focused over the OH Valley, and
   no discernible large-scale feature approaching north TX, it appears
   gusty winds and perhaps some hail are the primary threats.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 02/09/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   33429767 33929761 34869662 34589620 33349682 33429767