Mesoscale Discussion 0116
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1239 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

   Areas affected...portions of east TX into northern/central
   LA...extreme southeast AR and parts of central/southern MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 101839Z - 102045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this
   afternoon into this evening from southeast TX into portions of LA
   and MS. Damaging winds, isolated hail and a tornado or two are
   possible. Area is being monitored for potential watch issuance
   within the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in intensity early this
   afternoon from portions of eastern TX into northern LA and portions
   of west-central MS. This activity is developing ahead of a surface
   cold front in a southerly low level warm advection regime. Breaks in
   higher clouds across the broader region has revealed extensive low
   level CU field across the warm sector. Surface dew points have
   increase to the upper 60s to low 70s across the Sabine and lower MS
   Valley, as far north as the I-20 vicinity in central MS near KJAN,
   while temperatures have warmed into the 70s across much of the
   region. As a result, MLCAPE has increased to around 500-1000 J/kg.
   With continued heating, some additional destabilization is expected.

   Effective shear greater than 40 kt will support supercells and
   bowing line segments capable of strong, locally damaging wind gusts.
   Steeper midlevel lapse rates reside across parts of central into
   eastern TX and parts of LA, which could lead to some marginally
   severe hail in more isolated/discrete cells. Deep layer flow is
   oriented parallel to the surface boundary, which will result in
   training convection, while favoring transition of semi-discrete
   cells to clusters/line segments. Additionally, convection developing
   near the cold front could quickly become undercut as storm motion
   brings convection to the cool side of the boundary. In addition to
   sporadic strong wind gusts, low level shear will be sufficient for
   rotation. Given rich low level moisture in place, a tornado or two
   can not be ruled out, especially if any sustained surface-based
   cells can develop further south of the cold front in the
   higher-quality warm sector.

   ..Leitman/Thompson.. 02/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   30929107 30429305 30269408 30079500 30179570 30359597
               30749616 31259604 31789523 32709323 33149079 33298948
               33288891 33108866 32618854 32268868 31868901 31498946
               31209011 30929107