Mesoscale Discussion 0117
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0214 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of south-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102014Z - 102215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Very isolated storms may be accompanied by severe hail.
   Given the relatively localized nature of the threat, a WW issuance
   is not currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A lone supercell thunderstorm, which has recently
   exhibited deviant rightward motion, is in progress across Bandera
   County, TX, likely in association with a mid-level vort-max embedded
   in the larger scale cyclonic flow induced by an approaching
   shortwave. This storm is currently rooted above a stable surface
   layer, and given the current position and southward movement of the
   cold front, this storm will likely remain elevated in nature.

   Nonetheless, steep mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/km) are in
   place, supporting over 1000 J/kg MUCAPE, along with 70 knots of
   effective bulk shear. The aforementioned parameter space will
   support continued organization of the Bandera County storm and any
   other cells that manage to develop, with severe hail being the
   primary risk.

   Given the low confidence in further storm development, and the
   overall weak synoptic-scale forcing present over south-central TX a
   WW issuance is not currently expected.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 02/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30499687 30319676 30069676 29819680 29689696 29529734
               29449801 29409875 29499908 29729953 30159926 30509756
               30499687