Mesoscale Discussion 0118
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0433 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

   Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 102233Z - 110000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms with embedded supercells has developed
   from southwest Louisiana eastward into southern Mississippi. The
   primary threat will be a threat for a tornado and/or damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have developed in the warm sector south of a
   convectively reinforced frontal zone which is currently in place
   across northern Louisiana and south central Mississippi. MLCAPE in
   this region is around 1000 J/kg with effective shear around 55 to 60
   knots. Storm intensity has been somewhat mitigated up to this point
   due to limited instability and weak forcing. However, given 0-1 SRH
   around 200 to 250 m2/s2 per RAP mesoanalysis and area VWPs, any
   stronger updrafts will likely rotate and may pose a threat for a
   weak tornado. This threat may increase somewhat with any stronger
   storms which interact with the frontal zone. The current activity is
   diurnally aided, and thus the threat should only persist for the
   next 2 hours or so across far southern portions of Louisiana and
   Mississippi. The conditional nature of the threat precludes the need
   for a watch at this time.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 02/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   30559386 31159366 31949212 32179056 31968937 31368889
               30858902 30488947 30299067 30109219 30029318 30189387
               30559386