Mesoscale Discussion 0119
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

   Areas affected...far northeast Texas across northern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 110001Z - 110130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm coverage and intensity is
   expected through the evening. All severe weather hazards will be
   possible, although the threat may remain isolated.

   DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has started to increase along the
   cold front in eastern Texas and along the warm front in northern
   Louisiana as mid-level ascent overspreads the region. Some stronger
   updrafts are possible across this region through the evening and
   into the overnight hours. Temperatures south of the warm front are
   currently in the mid 70s with dewpoints in the upper 60s yielding
   MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Strong effective shear (60 to 70 kts) will
   support supercellular structures with any stronger updrafts.
   Low-level flow is expected to increase over the next 2 hours as the
   low-level jet increases from 30 to 50 knots. Therefore, there will
   be at least some threat for severe storms this evening and into the
   early overnight hours. All severe weather hazards will be possible
   including isolated large hail and damaging winds and/or a tornado,
   but a watch is uncertain for what may be a relatively isolated
   threat.

   ..Bentley/Guyer.. 02/11/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32269448 32659411 32819310 32889203 32769135 32399081
               31579104 31229219 31229346 31229399 31379432 31689460
               32269448