Mesoscale Discussion 0125
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0401 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of central Mississippi into central
   Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182201Z - 182330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms are possible over the next few
   hours. A couple damaging wind gusts or a brief tornado cannot be
   ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Convection continues to initiate immediately along a
   southward surging cold front across central parts of MS into AL, in
   an environment of modest buoyancy (around 500 J/kg MLCAPE) and ample
   deep-layer shear (over 60 knots of bulk effective shear). However,
   some locally backing of the surface winds in central Alabama, along
   with 200 m2/s2 effective SRH (per latest mesoanalysis), and
   transient rotation noted in convection across west-central AL (per
   KGWX and KBMX radar data) suggests that a localized severe risk may
   occur over the next few hours, with a few damaging wind gusts and
   perhaps a brief tornado possible. Farther west, across central MS,
   winds remain veered ahead of the front, with deep-layer shear
   vectors oriented mainly parallel to the cold front, suggesting that
   a couple damaging wind gusts would be the greatest threat in this
   area.

   Given the expected brevity and localized nature of the severe
   threat, a WW issuance is not expected at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 02/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32218947 32958969 33478944 33748760 33638616 33208572
               32618570 32228609 32018790 32218947