Mesoscale Discussion 0128
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1220 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2020

   Areas affected...portions of southeast MO...eastern AR...far western
   TN and northwest MS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241820Z - 242015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated, briefly strong storms are expected across the
   MCD area this afternoon. Marginally severe hail and locally strong
   wind gusts will be the main threats with stronger cells.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing ahead of a
   surface cold front from south-central MO into north-central AR. A
   narrow warm sector exists ahead of the front toward the MO Bootheel
   and lower MS Valley, characterized by mainly 50s F dew points and
   temperatures in the upper 50s to 60s F. Atop these modest dew
   points, steep midlevel lapse rates are aiding in modest
   destabilization, with maximum MLCAPE around 250-500 J/kg noted in
   latest mesoanalysis data. Strong shear, and elongated hodographs
   will support sporadic organized cells shifting east-northeast around
   35-40 kt. Given limited instability, intense cells will likely be
   short-lived, but could produce near-severe hail and/or locally
   damaging wind gusts. A short-lived tornado or two also is possible
   given backed low level winds resulting in enhanced SRH and modest
   low level hodographs. Overall, the threat is expected to remain
   marginal and rather transient for any given location and a watch is
   not expected at this time.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 02/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LSX...LZK...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37819263 37939215 37839103 37749031 36998962 35188916
               33858948 33238980 33199031 33249099 33439134 34369205
               34999216 35659250 36679281 37369298 37519302 37819263