Mesoscale Discussion 0130
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

   Areas affected...The central Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261729Z - 261900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms are expected this
   afternoon across central Florida. Gusty winds will be the primary
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...A cold front is currently near Ocala at 17Z and is
   moving slowly southward across the Peninsula. Storms have formed
   along this front over the Gulf and are moving toward the area. The
   frontal orientation currently supports most storm activity on the
   cool side of the front, but a more meridional reorientation of the
   front through the day, and additional development slightly ahead of
   the front will improve the likelihood of surface based storms along
   and near the front by later this afternoon. Central Florida is
   moistening as 70F dewpoints advect northward with MLCAPE expected to
   peak around 1500 J/kg ahead of the front later this afternoon. In
   addition to storms along the front, isolated to scattered storms are
   expected to form well ahead of the front in east-central Florida.
   However, mid-level clouds across the area have limited surface
   heating somewhat up to this point which may limit convective
   coverage. Regardless, at least some storms are expected ahead of the
   cold front as forcing overspreads the area later this afternoon.
   These storms will likely be supercellular as effective shear is
   around 60 knots per RAP mesoanalysis and TBW VWP. However, modest
   mid-level lapse rates and relatively weak and veered flow in the
   lowest 1 km will likely keep any severe threat isolated. No watch is
   expected at this time, but storm trends will continue to be
   monitored through the afternoon.

   ..Bentley.. 02/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   29158281 29488231 29818146 29848116 29678084 28688036
               27838008 27258046 26878104 26488180 26598233 27168263
               28298305 29158281