Mesoscale Discussion 0131
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0149 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

   Areas affected...portions of south-central PA...eastern WV...VA and
   western MD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 261949Z - 262145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong/locally damaging wind gusts are possible
   late this afternoon into this evening from eastern WV into
   south-central PA, western MD and central/northern VA.

   DISCUSSION...An area of deepening convective showers across eastern
   WV has developed this afternoon ahead of a deepening surface low and
   cold front. This also coincides with an area of stronger heating
   where partly cloudy skies have allowed temperatures to warm into the
   mid 50s to low 60s. Instability remains meager across the region due
   to a lack of higher surface dewpoints, and less than 500 J/kg MUCAPE
   is expected through this evening. However, convective line segments
   will be developing in a strongly sheared environment as the surface
   low continues to deepen with northeastward extent. Furthermore,
   midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km are present across the region.
   Overall, dewpoints in the 40s to near 50 F and a relatively cool
   boundary layer will limit the intensity of convection. Nevertheless,
   isolated strong wind gusts will be possible near strongest
   convection given the strength of the background flow and eventual
   fast storm motion toward to northeast at around 40 kt as an intense
   shortwave impulse ejecting toward the region arrives in the next 2-3
   hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 02/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   40787884 39857957 38888016 37738056 37138067 36908038
               36757946 36797897 36917867 37147826 37527791 38167762
               38657746 39507737 40157741 40607756 40887769 41037794
               41037837 40787884