Mesoscale Discussion 0132
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0744 PM CST Wed Feb 26 2020

   Areas affected...Southern/Southeast Virginia...Southeast Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270144Z - 270345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible with convection across
   southern/southeast Virginia into southeast Maryland this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strong 500mb speed max (120kt on 27/00z FFC sounding)
   is forecast to translate across the southern Appalachians into the
   Middle Atlantic by 06z. In response to this speed max, a surface
   wave along the VA/NC border, near DAN, should track northeast over
   the next few hours. A well-defined warm front extends along the
   VA/NC border and this boundary should advance north allowing
   somewhat higher surface moisture to spread across southeast VA. Even
   so, primary concentration of convection is expected to reside
   along/north of the boundary where large-scale forcing for ascent
   will be maximized. 00z sounding at GSO exhibited surface-based
   buoyancy with MUCAPE in excess of 300 J/kg, though WAL/IAD soundings
   yield negligible elevated instability. Over the last hour or so,
   convection has gradually increased ahead of the low across
   Pittsylvania/Campbell County VA region. Some lightning is noted with
   this activity suggesting these updrafts have strengthened/deepened.
   While deep-layer shear is strong, low-level flow is not particularly
   noteworthy. For these reasons, gusty winds are the primary threat
   with this instability-challenged convection.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 02/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37797884 38487628 37527553 36827686 36597901 37797884