Mesoscale Discussion 0147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032350Z - 040215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A broken line of storms along/ahead of a cold front are
   moving eastward across central Pennsylvania, Maryland, and northern
   Virginia. These storms are expected to continue into the evening
   with damaging wind gusts as the main threat.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough is moving over the Great Lakes
   region with an associated surface cyclone over the eastern Great
   Lakes and Upstate New York. Strong forcing for ascent aloft and a
   surface cold front are helping to develop these thunderstorms,
   although convection is rather shallow per satellite/radar imagery. A
   convectively-enhanced surface vorticity max or a quasi-MCV is
   evident over northern Virginia per KLWX, which may allow slightly
   stronger convection to continue farther eastward than what the
   environment indicates. While buoyancy is rather weak, there are
   strong winds throughout the vertical profile that may yield isolated
   damaging wind gusts in the next few hours as storms move eastward.
   Low-level inversions may inhibit these gusts, although given the
   strong winds and ongoing convection, a few gusts may reach the
   surface.

   ..Nauslar/Edwards.. 03/03/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   41417684 41617579 41577486 41207422 40687402 39587443
               39157499 38887565 38667655 38587725 39117724 41417684