Mesoscale Discussion 0150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2020

   Areas affected...far eastern Texas across
   Louisiana...Mississippi...and Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 040719Z - 040945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Numerous storms are likely to form from the Sabine River
   eastward into Alabama later tonight, with damaging winds the most
   probable threat. Large hail as well as a couple brief tornadoes are
   also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a weak east-west oriented
   boundary from TX into AL, with MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg
   along and south of it. Meanwhile, 50-60 kt deep-layer shear exists
   along the length of the boundary, where neutral height tendencies
   are forecast ahead of the upper low over west TX.  Given zonal flow
   aloft, temperatures in the mid levels remain cool, supporting MUCAPE
   values despite marginal boundary-layer temperatures.

   Southerly winds just off the surface are forecast to increase
   tonight, with at least 30 kts out of the south at 850 mb. This will
   aid lift as well as moisture advection, and the result should be
   numerous strong to severe storms through morning. Long hodographs
   should favor storm tilt, with bows possible along and just north of
   the surface boundary. Effective SRH will be sufficient for rotating
   storms near the boundary, and a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
   In addition, large hail will be possible.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30909116 30729461 31179490 32049481 32649400 33119124
               32938868 32528732 31708674 30978670 30338680 30178804
               30909116