Mesoscale Discussion 0151
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2020

   Areas affected...South-Central Texas and Texas Hill Country

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 040803Z - 041000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue developing across
   south-central Texas and the Hill Country overnight. Elevated storms
   with large hail are the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...A closed upper low is moving into west Texas tonight
   providing broad forcing for ascent across large portions of Texas.
   Warm air advection along with falling mid-level temperatures/heights
   has resulted in elevated storms between Del Rio and San Angelo. Per
   radar imagery from KSJT and KDFX and MRMS MESH, potentially severe
   hail cores have noted with a few of the stronger storms. MUCAPE of
   500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 50+ knots per mesoanalysis
   indicate an environment capable of producing large hail. The DRT 00z
   sounding has steep lapse rates (7.5+ C/km) and strong
   speed/directional wind shear within a layer above an inversion
   around 700 mb also indicate the potential for large hail. Elevated
   storms just north of the boundary capable of large hail appears to
   the primary threat in the next couple of hours.

   Storms currently forming near and south-southwest of Del Rio are
   likely surface-based as moist upslope flow couples with falling
   heights aloft. A line of surface-based storms moving eastward is
   likely south of Junction towards Eagle Pass where it is uncapped,
   which would increase the potential for damaging winds. However, as
   the upper-level low lifts to the northeast, lack of instability will
   likely inhibit the eastward extent of these storms.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 03/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29350107 30610028 31029989 31219949 31319869 30619832
               29869858 29089918 28519968 28470054 29350107