Mesoscale Discussion 0153
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0637 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Alabama...southern Georgia...Florida
   Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041237Z - 041500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may impact part of Georgia and
   Florida later this morning. Damaging winds are most likely, but a
   tornado is possible later today.

   DISCUSSION...Storms continue to train across southern AL and now
   into southwest GA as the outflow-reinforced front sags south. A
   moist and unstable air mass remains ahead of the front, with 50-60
   kt effective deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary. This should
   continue to favor bowing structures capable of localized wind
   damage, with sporadic marginal hail as well.

   The TLH sounding shows a minor capping inversion around 700 mb, and
   a deep moist layer below. Any heating later today ahead of the
   boundary will aid severe potential. Effective SRH in excess of 200
   m2/s2 is forecast along the front as well as 850 mb southwesterlies
   increase to over 30 kt. This may support a supercell or two, and an
   isolated tornado.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 03/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   32098654 32088483 32248268 32018234 31448226 30918251
               30308326 29968453 30108591 30318682 30628732 30958750
               31458751 31918708 31998695 32098654