Mesoscale Discussion 0159
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0505 PM CST Wed Mar 04 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Southern Mississippi...Far
   Southwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 042305Z - 050130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is likely to continue across
   parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next few hours. Hail
   and a few strong wind gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance
   can not be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a 1006 mb low over the
   northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a front extending
   east-northeastward from the low, moving slowly southward across
   southeastern Louisiana and far southern Mississippi. Convection has
   been developing along the front and moving into the cooler air to
   the north of the boundary. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing in a
   corridor from near the boundary northward about 100 statute miles
   into the cooler air. This activity will remain elevated, but weak
   instability and strong effective shear should be enough for a
   marginal severe threat. Hail and strong gusty winds would be the
   primary threats. Although there is some uncertainty about how far
   south the front will move this evening, the greatest threat should
   continue to be just to the north of the front. As the boundary
   continues to move slowly southward due to convective outflow, a
   marginal severe threat may affect the vicinities of New Orleans and
   Biloxi, Mississippi later this evening.

   ..Broyles/Edwards.. 03/04/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   31238811 31438932 31449016 31469097 31309156 30979192
               30719197 30459196 30269185 29859133 29909063 29839002
               29788881 30458805 31238811