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Mesoscale Discussion 0182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2020
Areas affected...the Sierra Nevada
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 142053Z - 150300Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow is developing across northern Sierra Nevada
with snow spreading farther south along the range through the
afternoon. Heavy snow is likely down to 4000 to 5000 feet into
tomorrow with rates of 2-4+ inches per hour.
DISCUSSION...A deepening upper-level trough is slowly sliding
southward over the West Coast. Heights and temperatures have fallen
aloft across northern/central California with a couple of weaker
disturbances having rotated over northern California/Nevada today
per water vapor imagery. Low/mid-level flow is becoming more
southwesterly/perpendicular to the Sierra, which will increase
topographic lift and precipitation rates. Moisture advection from
the eastern Pacific will continue with the richer moisture plume
slowly shifting south along/ahead of the movement of the upper-level
trough.
Shallow instability is aiding precipitation rates and this will
continue as mid-level temperatures fall this afternoon/evening.
Heavy snow will likely continue above 4000-5000 feet into tomorrow
with occasional convective enhancements to the topographic lifting
as vorticity maxima rotate around the base of the trough. Spillover
precipitation is possible in the lee of the Sierra and will occur
intermittently as diabatic heating and latent heat release increase
from convection to help transport moisture over the crest. Snowfall
rates of 2-4+ inches per hour are expected into tomorrow with the
windward (western slopes) and areas near the crest favored for the
highest rates.
..Nauslar.. 03/14/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...REV...HNX...STO...
LAT...LON 39082106 39892169 40152141 40052089 39421991 38911984
36761843 36571877 37581980 38332049 39082106
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